\u6587\/\u8bb8\u9053\u654f\uff08\u4eac\u57ce\u9152\u5e97\u7ecf\u7406\uff09<\/p>\n
\u4e00 \u25cf \u5f15\u8a00<\/strong><\/span> \u6587\/\u8bb8\u9053\u654f\uff08\u4eac\u57ce\u9152\u5e97\u7ecf\u7406\uff09 \u4e00 \u25cf \u5f15\u8a00 IMF\u4e8e2016\u5e7410\u6708\u53d1\u8868\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u7a33\u5b9a\u62a5\u544a\uff08GLOBAL FINANCIAL STABILITY REPORT\uff09\uff0c\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u975e\u5e38\u5173\u6ce8\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u5578\u3002\u5168\u7403\u6b63\u8d8b\u5411\u53e6\u4e00\u573a\u5371\u673a\u3002\u5371\u673a\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\u53ca\u4e00\u4e9b\u5148\u51b3\u6761\u4ef6\u5728\u5f62\u6210\u3002\u4e13\u5bb6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u53ea\u6709\u5929\u624d\u624d\u80fd\u51c6\u786e\u9884\u6d4b\u5371\u673a\u7684\u7206\u53d1\u3002\u7ebd\u7ea6\u5927\u5b66\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6559\u6388\u9c81\u5bbe\u5c3c\uff08Nouriel Roubini\uff09\u5c31\u662f\u8fd1\u4ee36\u4e2a\u5929\u624d\u4e4b\u4e00\u30022006\u5e748\u6708\u5c31\u6210\u529f\u9884\u6d4b2008\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u5578\u3002\u4ed6\u5f53\u65f6\u5c31\u8b66\u544a\u4fe1\u8d37\u53ca\u623f\u4ea7\u6ce1\u6cab\u7206\u7834\u5371\u673a\u7684\u6765\u4e34\u3002 \u4e8c \u25cf \u4eba\u7c7b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3000\u5faa\u73af\u8d70\u52bf \u5faa\u73af\u8d70\u52bf\u652f\u914d\u4eba\u7c7b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3002\u4eba\u7c7b\u5728\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u5468\u671f\u5185\uff08PREDICTABLE PATTERNS\uff09\u6301\u7eed\u72af\u540c\u6837\u7684\u9519\u8bef\u3001\u8bef\u5224\u53ca\u8bef\u89e3\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u5468\u671f\u56fe\u8868\u5982\u540c\u957f\u6ce2\uff08WAVE\uff09\u6216\u6ce2\u6d6a\u3002\u8fd9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u957f\u6ce2\u7406\u8bba\u662f\u7531\u82cf\u8054\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u5eb7\u5fb7\u62c9\u6377\u592b\u4e8e1925\u5e74\u5728\u4ed6\u7684\u8457\u4f5c\u300a\u5927\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5468\u671f\u300b\u4e2d\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u3002\u957f\u6ce2\u7406\u8bba\uff08\u540e\u6765\u4ee5K-WAVE\u547d\u540d\u4ee5\u7eaa\u5ff5\u5eb7\u5fb7\u62c9\u6377\u592bNikolai Kondratiev\uff09\u3002K-WAVE\u7684\u91cd\u70b9\u662f\u5b87\u5b99\u4e2d\u6bcf\u4e00\u6837\u4e1c\u897f\u7684\u8d70\u52bf\u90fd\u6309\u5468\u671f\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u5149\u7ebf\u3001\u58f0\u97f3\u3001\u7535\u6ce2\u3001\u6da8\u6f6e\u7b49\u3002\u540c\u6837\u7684\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u662f\u6309\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u5468\u671f\u524d\u8fdb\uff0c\u800c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5468\u671f\u4e2d\u53c8\u53ef\u5206\u4e3a\u9636\u6bb5\uff08PHASES\uff09\u4e0e\u9891\u7387\uff08FREQUENCIES\uff09\u3002\u5927\u5468\u671f\uff0850-60\u5e74\uff09\u662f\u7531\u591a\u4e2a\u5c0f\u5468\u671f\uff08\u5dee\u4e0d\u591a10\u5e74\uff09\u7ec4\u6210\u7684\u3002 \u5728\u79c1\u4eba\u9886\u57df\u5468\u671f\u4e2d\uff08PRIVATE CYCLE\uff09\uff0c\u81ea\u7531\u4f01\u4e1a\u5e26\u9886\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8d70\u5411\u6210\u957f\u3001\u5bcc\u88d5\u3002\u5468\u671f\u672b\u8fbe\u5230\u9ad8\u5cf0\u5c31\u5f15\u53d1\u6ce1\u6cab\u7834\u88c2\uff0c\u4e4b\u540e\u5c31\u5d29\u6e83\u3002\u516c\u5171\u9886\u57df\uff08\u653f\u5e9c\uff09\u8ddf\u7740\u4ecb\u5165\u62ef\u6551\uff0c\u4ee5\u5370\u949e\uff0c\u64cd\u7eb5\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u6492\u94b1\u7b49\u6765\u523a\u6fc0\u6210\u957f\u3002\u8fd9\u6700\u7ec8\u4e5f\u5c06\u5bfc\u81f4\u5d29\u6e83\uff0c\u56e0\u653f\u5e9c\u4e0d\u80fd\u65e0\u8282\u5236\u7684\u5370\u949e\u6216\u4e3e\u503a\u6765\u6d88\u8d39\uff08YOU CAN\u2019T KEEP SPENDING MONEY YOU DON\u2019T HAVE\uff09\u3002\u5eb7\u5fb7\u62c9\u6377\u592b\u57281926\u5e74\u4e5f\u9884\u6d4b\u5171\u4ea7\u5236\u5ea6\u6700\u7ec8\u5c06\u88ab\u8d44\u672c\u4e3b\u4e49\u5236\u5ea6\u53d6\u4ee3\u300261\u5e74\u540e\uff0c\u82cf\u8054\u679c\u771f\u88ab\u89e3\u4f53\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u5f15\u8fdb\u8d44\u672c\u4e3b\u4e49\u3002 \u4e09 \u25cf \u5341\u5e74\u4e00\u5468\u3000\u5faa\u73af\u8d70\u52bf 1987\u5e74\u30011997\u5e74\u30012008\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u89c1\u8bc1\u5341\u5e74\u5faa\u73af\u8d70\u52bf\u3002 1987\u5e7410\u670819\u65e5\u7206\u53d1\u9ed1\u8272\u661f\u671f\u4e00\u80a1\u707e\uff1b\u4e3b\u56e0\u662f\u670d\u4ef7\u8fc7\u9ad8\uff0c\u7a0b\u5f0f\u4ea4\u6613\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\u6d41\u52a8\u91d1\u4e0d\u8db3\u548c\u7f8a\u7fa4\u5fc3\u7406\u3002\u968f\u4e4b\u800c\u6765\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u3002 1997\u5e747\u6708\u7206\u53d1\u4e9a\u6d32\u91d1\u878d\u98ce\u66b4\uff0c\u7531\u6cf0\u56fd\u5f00\u59cb\u3002\u4e9a\u6d32\u4ee5\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u5438\u5f15\u5927\u91cf\u70ed\u94b1\u6d41\u5165\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u8d44\u4ea7\u6ce1\u6cac\u5316\uff0c\u540e\u6765\u4e8e1997\u5e74\u7206\u7834\u3002\u4e9a\u6d32\u5927\u90e8\u4efd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u9677\u8870\u9000\u3002 2008\u5e74 9\u670815\u65e5\u7f8e\u56fd\u6b21\u623f\u8d37\u5371\u673a\u7206\u53d1\u6210\u707e\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u623f\u5e02\u6ce1\u6cac\u7206\u7834\uff0c\u5f15\u53d1\u8d44\u623f\u8d37\u4e0e\u91d1\u878d\u7206\u7834\u6210\u707e\uff0c\u6b83\u53ca\u5168\u7403\uff0c\u540c\u6b65\u8870\u9000\u3002\u6309\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5468\u671f\u8d70\u52bf\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u4e0b\u6b21\u5371\u673a\u6216\u843d\u57282017\u30012018\u6216\u8fdf\u4e00\u70b9\u4e5f\u8bf4\u4e0d\u5b9a\u3002 \u56db \u25cf \u6050\u60e7\u6307\u6570\u30002007\u540e\u65b0\u4f4e 2008\u5e74\u7206\u53d1\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u5578\u540e\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u63a8\u51fa\u96f6\u5229\u7387\u653f\u7b56\uff08ZIRP\uff09\u53ca\u91cf\u5bdb\uff08QEI\uff0c2009\u5e743\u6708\u751f\u6548\uff09\u6765\u62ef\u6551\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3002\u7f8e\u80a1\u53d7\u6fc0\u52b1\uff0c\u4e8e2009\u5e743\u6708\u5927\u529b\u53cd\u5f39\u30028\u5e74\u591a\u6765\uff0c\u7f8e\u80a1\uff08Dow Jones\u3001S&P\u3001NASDAQ\uff09\u8282\u8282\u51b2\u5411\u9ad8\u70b9\uff08\u4ece8500-20,000\uff09\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u771f\u6b63\u8c03\u6574\u8fc7\u3002 \u5e9e\u5927\u8d44\u91d1\u6765\u81eaQE\u53ca\u5168\u7403\u662f\u4e3b\u8981\u63a8\u52a8\u529b\uff1aQE\u7b49\u540c\u7f8e\u56fd\u72c2\u5370\u949e\u7968\uff1b\u7f8e\u56fd\u590d\u7526\u6210\u4e86\u5168\u7403\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3\u3002 2008\u5e7410\u6708\uff08\u5f53\u65f6\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u5578\u72c2\u88ad\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c\u540e\u6269\u6563\u81f3\u5168\u7403\uff09\uff0cWARREN BUFFETT\u66fe\u8fd9\u6837\u8bb2\u8fc7\uff1a\u522b\u4eba\u8d2a\u5a6a\u65f6\u6050\u60e7\uff0c\u6050\u60e7\u65f6\u8d2a\u5a6a\uff08Be greedy when everyone is fearful, and fearful when everyone is greedy.\uff09 \u8fd9\u662f\u9006\u52bf\uff08Contrarian\uff09\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u3002\u73b0\u5728\u8c08\u6050\u60e7\uff0c\u4e0d\u8c08\u6295\u8d44\u3002\u7f8e\u80a1\u6709\u201c\u6050\u60e7\u6307\u6570\u201d\uff08Fear Index\u6216Vix Index\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u6307\u6570\u662f\u7528\u6765\u8861\u91cf\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\uff08Anticipated Market […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":48980,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,67],"tags":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/scaccmm.sarawakmethodist.org\/new\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2046"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/scaccmm.sarawakmethodist.org\/new\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/scaccmm.sarawakmethodist.org\/new\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scaccmm.sarawakmethodist.org\/new\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scaccmm.sarawakmethodist.org\/new\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2046"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/scaccmm.sarawakmethodist.org\/new\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2046\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scaccmm.sarawakmethodist.org\/new\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/48980"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/scaccmm.sarawakmethodist.org\/new\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2046"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scaccmm.sarawakmethodist.org\/new\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2046"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scaccmm.sarawakmethodist.org\/new\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2046"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nIMF\u4e8e2016\u5e7410\u6708\u53d1\u8868\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u7a33\u5b9a\u62a5\u544a\uff08GLOBAL FINANCIAL STABILITY REPORT\uff09\uff0c\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u975e\u5e38\u5173\u6ce8\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u5578\u3002\u5168\u7403\u6b63\u8d8b\u5411\u53e6\u4e00\u573a\u5371\u673a\u3002\u5371\u673a\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\u53ca\u4e00\u4e9b\u5148\u51b3\u6761\u4ef6\u5728\u5f62\u6210\u3002\u4e13\u5bb6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u53ea\u6709\u5929\u624d\u624d\u80fd\u51c6\u786e\u9884\u6d4b\u5371\u673a\u7684\u7206\u53d1\u3002\u7ebd\u7ea6\u5927\u5b66\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6559\u6388\u9c81\u5bbe\u5c3c\uff08Nouriel Roubini\uff09\u5c31\u662f\u8fd1\u4ee36\u4e2a\u5929\u624d\u4e4b\u4e00\u30022006\u5e748\u6708\u5c31\u6210\u529f\u9884\u6d4b2008\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u5578\u3002\u4ed6\u5f53\u65f6\u5c31\u8b66\u544a\u4fe1\u8d37\u53ca\u623f\u4ea7\u6ce1\u6cab\u7206\u7834\u5371\u673a\u7684\u6765\u4e34\u3002
\n\u4e8c \u25cf \u4eba\u7c7b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3000\u5faa\u73af\u8d70\u52bf<\/span><\/strong>
\n\u5faa\u73af\u8d70\u52bf\u652f\u914d\u4eba\u7c7b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3002\u4eba\u7c7b\u5728\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u5468\u671f\u5185\uff08PREDICTABLE PATTERNS\uff09\u6301\u7eed\u72af\u540c\u6837\u7684\u9519\u8bef\u3001\u8bef\u5224\u53ca\u8bef\u89e3\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u5468\u671f\u56fe\u8868\u5982\u540c\u957f\u6ce2\uff08WAVE\uff09\u6216\u6ce2\u6d6a\u3002\u8fd9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u957f\u6ce2\u7406\u8bba\u662f\u7531\u82cf\u8054\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u5eb7\u5fb7\u62c9\u6377\u592b\u4e8e1925\u5e74\u5728\u4ed6\u7684\u8457\u4f5c\u300a\u5927\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5468\u671f\u300b\u4e2d\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u3002\u957f\u6ce2\u7406\u8bba\uff08\u540e\u6765\u4ee5K-WAVE\u547d\u540d\u4ee5\u7eaa\u5ff5\u5eb7\u5fb7\u62c9\u6377\u592bNikolai Kondratiev\uff09\u3002K-WAVE\u7684\u91cd\u70b9\u662f\u5b87\u5b99\u4e2d\u6bcf\u4e00\u6837\u4e1c\u897f\u7684\u8d70\u52bf\u90fd\u6309\u5468\u671f\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u5149\u7ebf\u3001\u58f0\u97f3\u3001\u7535\u6ce2\u3001\u6da8\u6f6e\u7b49\u3002\u540c\u6837\u7684\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u662f\u6309\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u5468\u671f\u524d\u8fdb\uff0c\u800c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5468\u671f\u4e2d\u53c8\u53ef\u5206\u4e3a\u9636\u6bb5\uff08PHASES\uff09\u4e0e\u9891\u7387\uff08FREQUENCIES\uff09\u3002\u5927\u5468\u671f\uff0850-60\u5e74\uff09\u662f\u7531\u591a\u4e2a\u5c0f\u5468\u671f\uff08\u5dee\u4e0d\u591a10\u5e74\uff09\u7ec4\u6210\u7684\u3002
\n\u5728\u79c1\u4eba\u9886\u57df\u5468\u671f\u4e2d\uff08PRIVATE CYCLE\uff09\uff0c\u81ea\u7531\u4f01\u4e1a\u5e26\u9886\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8d70\u5411\u6210\u957f\u3001\u5bcc\u88d5\u3002\u5468\u671f\u672b\u8fbe\u5230\u9ad8\u5cf0\u5c31\u5f15\u53d1\u6ce1\u6cab\u7834\u88c2\uff0c\u4e4b\u540e\u5c31\u5d29\u6e83\u3002\u516c\u5171\u9886\u57df\uff08\u653f\u5e9c\uff09\u8ddf\u7740\u4ecb\u5165\u62ef\u6551\uff0c\u4ee5\u5370\u949e\uff0c\u64cd\u7eb5\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u6492\u94b1\u7b49\u6765\u523a\u6fc0\u6210\u957f\u3002\u8fd9\u6700\u7ec8\u4e5f\u5c06\u5bfc\u81f4\u5d29\u6e83\uff0c\u56e0\u653f\u5e9c\u4e0d\u80fd\u65e0\u8282\u5236\u7684\u5370\u949e\u6216\u4e3e\u503a\u6765\u6d88\u8d39\uff08YOU CAN\u2019T KEEP SPENDING MONEY YOU DON\u2019T HAVE\uff09\u3002\u5eb7\u5fb7\u62c9\u6377\u592b\u57281926\u5e74\u4e5f\u9884\u6d4b\u5171\u4ea7\u5236\u5ea6\u6700\u7ec8\u5c06\u88ab\u8d44\u672c\u4e3b\u4e49\u5236\u5ea6\u53d6\u4ee3\u300261\u5e74\u540e\uff0c\u82cf\u8054\u679c\u771f\u88ab\u89e3\u4f53\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u5f15\u8fdb\u8d44\u672c\u4e3b\u4e49\u3002
\n\u4e09 \u25cf \u5341\u5e74\u4e00\u5468\u3000\u5faa\u73af\u8d70\u52bf<\/strong><\/span>
\n1987\u5e74\u30011997\u5e74\u30012008\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u89c1\u8bc1\u5341\u5e74\u5faa\u73af\u8d70\u52bf\u3002
\n1987\u5e7410\u670819\u65e5\u7206\u53d1\u9ed1\u8272\u661f\u671f\u4e00\u80a1\u707e\uff1b\u4e3b\u56e0\u662f\u670d\u4ef7\u8fc7\u9ad8\uff0c\u7a0b\u5f0f\u4ea4\u6613\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\u6d41\u52a8\u91d1\u4e0d\u8db3\u548c\u7f8a\u7fa4\u5fc3\u7406\u3002\u968f\u4e4b\u800c\u6765\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u3002
\n1997\u5e747\u6708\u7206\u53d1\u4e9a\u6d32\u91d1\u878d\u98ce\u66b4\uff0c\u7531\u6cf0\u56fd\u5f00\u59cb\u3002\u4e9a\u6d32\u4ee5\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u5438\u5f15\u5927\u91cf\u70ed\u94b1\u6d41\u5165\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u8d44\u4ea7\u6ce1\u6cac\u5316\uff0c\u540e\u6765\u4e8e1997\u5e74\u7206\u7834\u3002\u4e9a\u6d32\u5927\u90e8\u4efd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u9677\u8870\u9000\u3002
\n2008\u5e74 9\u670815\u65e5\u7f8e\u56fd\u6b21\u623f\u8d37\u5371\u673a\u7206\u53d1\u6210\u707e\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u623f\u5e02\u6ce1\u6cac\u7206\u7834\uff0c\u5f15\u53d1\u8d44\u623f\u8d37\u4e0e\u91d1\u878d\u7206\u7834\u6210\u707e\uff0c\u6b83\u53ca\u5168\u7403\uff0c\u540c\u6b65\u8870\u9000\u3002\u6309\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5468\u671f\u8d70\u52bf\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u4e0b\u6b21\u5371\u673a\u6216\u843d\u57282017\u30012018\u6216\u8fdf\u4e00\u70b9\u4e5f\u8bf4\u4e0d\u5b9a\u3002
\n\u56db \u25cf \u6050\u60e7\u6307\u6570\u30002007\u540e\u65b0\u4f4e<\/span><\/strong>
\n2008\u5e74\u7206\u53d1\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u5578\u540e\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u63a8\u51fa\u96f6\u5229\u7387\u653f\u7b56\uff08ZIRP\uff09\u53ca\u91cf\u5bdb\uff08QEI\uff0c2009\u5e743\u6708\u751f\u6548\uff09\u6765\u62ef\u6551\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3002\u7f8e\u80a1\u53d7\u6fc0\u52b1\uff0c\u4e8e2009\u5e743\u6708\u5927\u529b\u53cd\u5f39\u30028\u5e74\u591a\u6765\uff0c\u7f8e\u80a1\uff08Dow Jones\u3001S&P\u3001NASDAQ\uff09\u8282\u8282\u51b2\u5411\u9ad8\u70b9\uff08\u4ece8500-20,000\uff09\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u771f\u6b63\u8c03\u6574\u8fc7\u3002
\n\u5e9e\u5927\u8d44\u91d1\u6765\u81eaQE\u53ca\u5168\u7403\u662f\u4e3b\u8981\u63a8\u52a8\u529b\uff1aQE\u7b49\u540c\u7f8e\u56fd\u72c2\u5370\u949e\u7968\uff1b\u7f8e\u56fd\u590d\u7526\u6210\u4e86\u5168\u7403\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3\u3002
\n2008\u5e7410\u6708\uff08\u5f53\u65f6\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u5578\u72c2\u88ad\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c\u540e\u6269\u6563\u81f3\u5168\u7403\uff09\uff0cWARREN BUFFETT\u66fe\u8fd9\u6837\u8bb2\u8fc7\uff1a\u522b\u4eba\u8d2a\u5a6a\u65f6\u6050\u60e7\uff0c\u6050\u60e7\u65f6\u8d2a\u5a6a\uff08Be greedy when everyone is fearful, and fearful when everyone is greedy.\uff09
\n\u8fd9\u662f\u9006\u52bf\uff08Contrarian\uff09\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u3002\u73b0\u5728\u8c08\u6050\u60e7\uff0c\u4e0d\u8c08\u6295\u8d44\u3002\u7f8e\u80a1\u6709\u201c\u6050\u60e7\u6307\u6570\u201d\uff08Fear Index\u6216Vix Index\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u6307\u6570\u662f\u7528\u6765\u8861\u91cf\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\uff08Anticipated Market Volatility\uff09\u3002\u7b80\u5355\u6765\u8bb2\uff0c\u6050\u60e7\u6307\u6570\u662f\u8861\u91cf\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5bf9\u4fdd\u4f4f\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u7684\u5fe7\u8651\u611f\u6709\u591a\u9ad8\u3002
\n\u4e00\u822c\u6765\u8bb2\uff0c\u5f53\u80a1\u5e02\u5145\u6ee1\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u53ca\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u6709\u9ad8\u6050\u60e7\u611f\u65f6\uff0cFear Index\u5c31\u8d70\u9ad8\uff1b\u800c\u5f53\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u611f\u5230\u81ea\u6ee1\u4e0e\u8d2a\u5a6a\u65f6\uff0c\u6307\u6570\u5c31\u8d70\u4f4e\u3002
\n\u6050\u60e7\u6307\u6570\u7684\u6700\u4f4e\u8bb0\u5f55\u662f\u57282006\u5e7412\u670815\u65e5\u5f55\u5f97\uff0c\u53739.39%\u3002\u5f53\u65f6\u7f8e\u80a1\u6b63\u66b4\u5347\uff0c\u8d70\u5411\u5386\u53f2\u9ad8\u70b9\u3002\u800cFear Index\u4e5f\u4e8e2008\u5e7410\u670824\u65e5\u53d6\u5f97\u5386\u53f2\u9ad8\u70b9\uff0c\u537389.53%\u3002\u5f53\u65f6\u80a1\u5e02\u72c2\u8dcc, \u5168\u7403\u5904\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5371\u673a\u3002\u6050\u60e7\u6307\u6570\u57282017\u5e742\u6708\u5df2\u6ed1\u8dcc\u81f3\u4f4e\u4e8e11%\u3002\u8fd9\u6307\u6570\u70b9\u4f4d\u53ef\u4e0e2006\/2007\u5e74\u7684\u76f8\u6bd4\u8f83\u3002
\n\u9ad8\u76db\u6295\u884c\u6307\u5c80\u81ea\u4eceFear Index\u8bbe\u7acb\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u53ea\u67091.8%\u4ea4\u6613\u65e5\u7684\u6050\u60e7\u6307\u6570\u662f\u4f4e\u8fc711%\u3002\u6545\u8fd9\u6307\u6570\u5904\u4e8e\u5c11\u8fc711%\u4f4e\u4f4d\u662f\u7f55\u89c1\u7684\u3002
\n\u6050\u60e7\u6307\u6570\u5904\u4e8e\u4f4e\u4f4d\u662f\u5426\u6307\u5411\u7f8e\u80a1\u5df2\u8fbe\u9876\u70b9\uff1f\u8fd9\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u3002\u6050\u60e7\u6307\u6570\u8dcc\u5230\u8c37\u5e95\u53ea\u663e\u793a\u7f8e\u56fdS&P 500\u5927\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5bf9\u80a1\u5e02\u975e\u5e38\u4e50\u89c2\u53ca\u81ea\u6ee1\uff08Complacency\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u81ea\u6ee1\u4e0e\u4e50\u89c2\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\u53ef\u80fd\u6301\u7eed\u4e00\u9635\u5b50\uff0c\u4f46\u65e0\u8bba\u5982\u4f55\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u8b66\u8baf\u3002\u4f4e\u6050\u60e7\u6307\u6570\u5728\u544a\u8bc9\u6211\u4eec\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u4ee5\u81f3\u5168\u7403\u7684\u80a1\u5e02\u8d8b\u5411\u8c03\u6574\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u5f88\u9ad8\u3002\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5b9c\u8c28\u614e\u4e0e\u9009\u62e9\uff01
\n\u4e94 \u25cf \u96f6\u606f\u653f\u7b56\u3000\u91cf\u5bdb\u653f\u7b56<\/strong><\/span>
\n2008\u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u7206\u53d1\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u5578\uff0c\u4e4b\u540e\u5f15\u53d1\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u3002\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u524d\u540e\u63a8\u51fa\u96f6\u5229\u7387\u653f\u7b56\uff08ZIRP\uff09\u4ee5\u53ca\u91cf\u5bdb\uff08QEI\u3001QE2\u3001QE3\uff09\u653f\u7b56\u6765\u62ef\u6551\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3002
\nZIRP\u53caQE\u653f\u7b56\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u8870\u9000\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6ca1\u6709\u4ea7\u751f\u9884\u671f\u7684\u523a\u6fc0\u6548\u5e94\u3002ZIRP\u4e0eQE\u5374\u523a\u6fc0\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u623f\u5e02\u4e0e\u80a1\u5e02\u6500\u5411\u9ad8\u5cf0\u3002
\n\u80a1\u623f\u5e02\u7ecf\u8fc78\u5e74\u66b4\u5347\uff0c\u4f3c\u4e4e\u9677\u5165\u201c\u975e\u7406\u6027\u8363\u666f\u201d\uff08Irrational Exuberance\uff09\u3002\u6309\u5386\u53f2\u7ecf\u9a8c\uff0c\u7f8e\u80a1\u7684\u4f30\u503c\u4ee4\u4eba\u5fe7\u5fc3\u3002\u5728\u8fd910\u5e74\u5468\u671f\u4e4b\u5c4a\uff0c\u7f8e\u80a1\u9762\u5bf9\u9ad8\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u4f46\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u6709\u5229\u597d\u56e0\u7d20\u5728\u63a8\u52a8\u80a1\u5e02\u3002
\n\u516d \u25cf \u52a0\u606f\u7f29\u8868\u3000\u523a\u7834\u6ce1\u6cab<\/strong><\/span>
\n\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4ece2015\u5e74\u5f00\u542f\u52a0\u606f\u5468\u671f\uff0c\u9884\u8ba12017\u5e74\u5c06\u52a0\u901f\u5347\u606f\u3002\u81f3\u4eca\u5e744\u6708\uff0c\u7f8e\u5229\u7387\u662f1%\u3002\u5f53\u7f8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u590d\u7526\u8fd8\u662f\u75b2\u5f31\u65f6\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5374\u8d76\u57282015\u5e74\u542f\u52a8\u5347\u606f\u3002\u5e02\u573a\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u662f\u8054\u50a8\u5728\u4e3a\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21\u91d1\u878d\u98ce\u66b4\u51c6\u5907\u3002\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4e0d\u60f3\u5f53\u98ce\u66b4\u518d\u88ad\u51fb\u65f6\uff0c\u6ca1\u606f\u53ef\u51cf\uff01
\n\u62ef\u6551\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5176\u4e2d\u6700\u6709\u6548\u7684\u5de5\u5177\u4e4b\u4e00\u662f\u8d85\u5bdb\u677e\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u5347\u606f\u662f\u8054\u50a8\u5728\u7d2f\u79ef\u5f39\u836f\u3002\u968f\u7740\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u3001\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u53ca\u6210\u957f\u7387\u90fd\u5728\u6539\u5584\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4e0e\u8054\u50a8\u90fd\u8ba4\u4e3a2017\u5e74\u5e94\u5f53\u52a0\u5feb\u5347\u606f\u3002
\n\u8fc7\u53bb20\u51e0\u5e74\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5b9e\u884c\u901a\u8fc73\u6b21\u52a0\u606f\u5468\u671f\uff1a1994\u5e742\u6708\u25001995\u5e744\u6708\uff1b1999\u5e742\u6708\uff0d2000\u5e747\u6708\uff1b2004\u5e747\u6708\uff0d2006\u5e747\u6708\u3002\u4e09\u6b21\u52a0\u606f\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u90fd\u5bf9\u7f8e\u80a1\u5f62\u6210\u8d1f\u9762\u5f71\u54cd\u3002
\n2008\u5e74\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4ee5\u4e24\u5927\u6b66\u5668\uff0c\u5373ZIRP\u53caQE1\u30012\u30013\uff0c\u6765\u632f\u5174\u7f8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3002\u73b0\u5728\u8054\u50a8\u51b3\u5b9a\u4ee5\u52a0\u606f\u4e0e\u7f29\u8868\uff0c\u6765\u52a0\u901f\u63d0\u9ad8\u77ed\u671f\u4e0e\u957f\u671f\u5229\u7387\u3002\u7f29\u8868\u5c31\u662f\u6536\u7e2e\u7f8e\u8054\u5132\u8cc7\u4ea7\u8ca0\u50b5\u8868:
\n\uff5e\u4e09\u6b21\u91cf\u5bec(QE)\u540e\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\u5df2\u81a8\u80c0\u52304.5\u4e07\u4ebf\u3002
\n\uff5e\u8fd9\u662f\u5386\u53f2\u65b0\u9ad8\uff0c\u9700\u6b63\u5e38\u5316\u3002
\n\uff5e2008\uff1a\u7f8e\u570b\u72c2\u5370\u949e\u7968\u5411\u5e02\u573a\u4e70\u503a\u52a1\uff0c\u5727\u4f4e\u5229\u606f\u3002
\n\uff5e2017\/2018\uff1a\u5c07\u9010\u6b65\u628a\u503a\u5238\u5356\u56de\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u6536\u56de\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u63d0\u9ad8\u5229\u606f
\n\uff5e\u5c07\u9020\u6210\u5e02\u573a\u7f8e\u5143\u6d41\u91cf\u51cf\u5c11\uff0c\u5927\u91cf\u8d44\u91d1\u4ece\u4e9a\u6d32\u65b0\u5174\u5e02\u573a\u64a4\u51fa\u3002
\n\uff5e\u7f8e\u5143\u5e01\u503c\u5347\u9ad8\uff0c\u4e9a\u5e01\u8d8b\u5411\u8d2c\u503c\u3002
\n\u4e03 \u25cf \u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4f55\u65f6\u7f29\u8868\uff1f<\/strong><\/span>
\n\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u76ee\u524d\u53ef\u80fd\u5b9a\u7f29\u8868\u65f6\u5229\u7387\u57281.35%\u5de6\u53f3\u3002\u5982\u4eca\u5229\u7387\u521a\u52301%\uff0c\u6309\u7167\u6bcf\u6b210.25%\u5347\u606f\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0c\u8fd8\u9700\u8981\u81f3\u5c11\u4e24\u6b21\u624d\u80fd\u8fbe\u5230\u9884\u8ba1\u7684\u7f29\u8868\u5229\u7387\u3002\u800c\u5b8c\u6210\u4e24\u6b21\u52a0\u606f\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5927\u53ef\u80fd\u8981\u52302017\u5e74\u5e95\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u7f29\u8868\u771f\u6b63\u5c55\u5f00\u8981\u52302018\u5e74\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u8054\u50a8\u6301\u67094.5\u4e07\u4ebf\u503a\u5238\uff0c\u9884\u8ba1\u5c06\u7f29\u8868\uff08\u6b63\u5e38\u5316\uff09\u81f32.8\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u3002
\n\u516b \u25cf \u5347\u606f\u7f29\u8868\u3000\u5f15\u53d1\u707e\u96be<\/span><\/strong>
\n2013\u5e74\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u9010\u6b65\u9000\u51faQE\u5c31\u5df2\u7ecf\u7ed9\u5168\u7403\u5e02\u573a\u5e26\u6765\u4e0d\u5c11\u707e\u96be\u3002\u8fd9\u6b21\u5347\u606f\u548c\u7f29\u8868\u4e00\u8d77\u5f00\u52a8\u6216\u5c06\u5e26\u6765\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\uff01
\n\u7f8e\u56fd\u5c06\u9996\u5f53\u5176\u51b2\uff1a\u4eca\u5929\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0e\u80a1\u5e02\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u50cf\u6781\u4e861929\u5e74\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5927\u8427\u6761\uff1b\u4eca\u5929\u7f8e\u80a1\u7684\u6ce1\u6cac\u4e0e\u70ed\u5ea6\u4e0e1929\u5e74\u60c5\u5f62\u4e00\u6837\uff1b1929\u5e74\u4e0e2017\u5e74\u4e00\u6837\u7ecf\u5386\u80a1\u5e02\u8fde\u6da87\u5e74\uff1b1929\u5e74\u4e0e2017\u5e74\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u63a8\u884c\u4e00\u6837\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u2500\u25001929\u5e74\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5b9e\u65bd\u5347\u606f\u53ca\u8d37\u6b3e\u6536\u7f29\uff08\u53ef\u4ee5\u7406\u89e3\u4e3a\u7f29\u8868\uff09\uff0c2017\u5e74\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u63a8\u884c\u5347\u606f\u53ca\u7f29\u8868\uff08\u6548\u5e94\u662f\u63a8\u9ad8\u5229\u606f\u53ca\u51cf\u5c11\u6d41\u52a8\u8d44\u91d1\uff09\u3002
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